2012-12-25

เหลียวหลัง การเมืองไทย 2555


KP Page

14:33  -  Public
เหลียวหลัง การเมืองไทย 2555 เสถียรภาพที่เริ่มกลับมา
SIU พามองย้อนสถานการณ์ประเทศไทย พ.ศ. 2555 ภาพรวมการเมืองเริ่มมีเสถียรภาพ ระดับความขัดแย้งเริ่มลดลง นโยบายเศรษฐกิจเริ่มทำงาน

http://www.siamintelligence.com/thailand-2012-review/




KP Page

Yesterday 08:01  -  Public
From the album: Timeline Photos
By Andrew MacGregor Marshall

Bhumibol Adulyadej, sitting beside Sirikit, formally approves royalist military coup, at around midnight on the night of September 19/20, 2006. In the foreground with his back to the camera is Prem Tinsulanonda.

In comments to U.S ambassador Ralph Boyce, Democrat Party deputy leader Suthep Thaugsuban claimed this photograph is a signal that Sirikit supported the coup against Bhumibol's wishes.  See section 8 below:

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151361613776154&set=a.419593026153.213934.627196153

07BANGKOK2304

SUBJECT: DEMOCRAT OFFICIAL WARNS OF SONTHI'S AMBITIONS,
SURAYUD'S WEAKNESS

Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce, reason: 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
-----
¶1. (C) There is mounting evidence of serious rifts between PM
Surayud and junta leader General Sonthi. An experienced
politician told us on April 23 that Sonthi has at least
considered replacing Surayud. Democrat Party (DP) Secretary
General Suthep Thaugsuban recounted a discussion in early
April in which Sonthi recruited him for a ministerial slot,
and raised the possibility of heading something like a
national unity government. Although Suthep believed the
tensions might have eased since then, he said that Surayud
faced a hostile alliance that includes military officers and
other high profile activists who organized large protests in
Bangkok in 2005 and 2006. Suthep said the CNS wanted to
establish its own party and therefore had a shared interest
with others who would like to weaken the DP or see a change
in the party's leadership. Suthep declined to predict how
the Palace would react to a change in government leadership,
but he claimed the King only signaled his support for the
2006 coup after the fact, when urged by the Queen. Suthep
said he disagreed with some key provisions of the draft
constitution, but he would be willing to accept the current
draft in order that elections can be held in 2007. End
Summary.

WARNING ABOUT SONTHI
------------------
¶2. (C) Democrat Party Secretary General Suthep Thaugsuban
warned in an April 23 meeting of serious rifts between CNS
Chairman General Sonthi Boonyaratglin and PM Surayud
Chulanont. While Sonthi previously appeared apolitical,
Suthep said that events subsequent to the coup had affected
Sonthi's ambitions. Being in a position of greater power
also had stoked interest on the part of Sonthi and other CNS
figures, such as CNS Secretary General Winai Phattiyakul, in
using their influence to accumulate wealth. Surayud,
however, remained clean, Suthep claimed.

¶3. (C) Suthep said he had dined with Sonthi prior to the
April 13-17 Songkran holidays. At that dinner, Sonthi
invited Suthep to join a cabinet which Sonthi might form, in
the event that Sonthi were to replace Surayud and install
himself as Prime Minister. Suthep said he had declined
Sonthi's offer, saying the Democrats would not serve any
government installed by a coup. At one point in the meal,
Sonthi took out a pen and paper to note down whatever names
Suthep might suggest as suitable cabinet members, indicating
his interest in perhaps forming some kind of national unity
government.

KEY FIGURES OPPOSING SURAYUD
--------------------------
¶4. (C) Suthep said that Surayud faced a number of prominent
opponents; Sonthi was just the most prominent of these
figures, who are united primarily by opposition to Surayud's
relative restraint and reliance on legal procedures in
efforts to punish Thaksin for abuses of power during his time
in office. Included in this group were CNS Secretary General
Winai, CNS Deputy Secretary General Saprang Kalayanamitr,
media mogul Sondhi Limthongkul, retired General Chamlong
Srimuang, and perennial plotter (and Constitution Drafting
Committee Chairman) Prasong Soonsiri. (Note: Sondhi and
Chamlong were the highest profile members of the People's
Alliance for Democracy -- PAD -- which was instrumental in
mobilizing members of the middle and upper class against PM
Thaksin; the PAD has in recent weeks been publicly critical
of Surayud. End Note.) Suthep believed that it would not be
necessary to stage a coup to oust Surayud -- he did not want
to be PM anyway, and he would be ready to resign if asked.

¶5. (C) Suthep noted that Prasong Soonsiri hoped to become
Prime Minister. In the event of Surayud's resignation,
however, Suthep felt it was certain that Sonthi would take
the top job for himself. Suthep claimed the anti-Surayud
camp's plan for seizing power was dubbed as the "1-4-4"
formula: elections would be delayed for one year, and then a
CNS figure or proxy would serve as PM for two full four-year
terms.

¶6. (C) Privy Council President Prem Tinsulanonda -- widely
seen as a key figure behind the September 2006 coup d'etat --
had recently signaled his displeasure with Sonthi, according
to Suthep. Suthep related that Prem had spoken warmly with
Surayud at a Songkran event; by contrast, when in Sonthi's
presence, Prem refused to address the CNS Chairman. Suthep
interpreted Prem's shunning of Sonthi as reflecting
displeasure with Sonthi's growing ambitions.

¶7. (C) After the Songkran holidays, Suthep told us, he had
greeted Sonthi at a wedding reception. At that event, Sonthi
reportedly told Suthep that he was feeling more comfortable
with the political climate. Nevertheless, Suthep felt the
political situation remained unstable, and he suggested that
we do what we can to bolster Surayud's position, so as to
decrease the likelihood of Sonthi taking full control of the
government.

VIEW OF THE KING'S POSITION
-------------------------
¶8. (C) We asked Suthep how he believed the Palace would view
efforts by the CNS to force Surayud -- a former member of the
Privy Council -- out of office. Suthep declined to
speculate, but he said King Bhumibol had not favored the 2006
coup. Suthep claimed that, on the night of the coup, the
King had resisted meeting with the Generals who overthrew
Thaksin. In the end, the King gave in to the entreaties of
Queen Sirikit, but he publicly signaled her role in the coup
by approving the release of a photograph of that audience
which showed the King, casually dressed, in profile, while
the Queen faced the camera.

PRESSURE ON THE DP LEADERSHIP
---------------------------
¶9. (C) We asked about the possible dissolution of the
Democrat Party; the Constitutional Tribunal's verdict is due
to be announced at the end of May. Suthep said there were
many outside and even inside the DP who hoped for its
dissolution. Sonthi and Winai were working with former TRT
official Phinij Jarusombat to establish a new political party
that would act as the CNS's political vehicle, Suthep said.
(Note: Ref B reported Phinij's participation in a new
political grouping. End Note.) Intending to use this new
party to compete for power when elections take place, the CNS
had a clear interest in weakening the Democrat Party and
other rivals, Suthep said. In this respect, CNS and Thai Rak
Thai (TRT) interests overlapped.

¶10. (C) Former PM Chuan Leekpai also had supporters who hoped for Chuan's return to preeminence in the DP, and they would welcome a Constitutional Tribunal ruling dissolving the
party. Such a ruling would pave the way for Chuan, now
sidelined as a senior advisor, to head a reconstituted
version of the DP. Suthep -- whose allegedly improper
actions lie at the core of the Constitutional Tribunal
proceedings against the DP -- declined to predict the
Tribunal's ruling. However, he noted that Thaksin had
budgeted 500 million Baht (over 14 million USD) in order to
influence the Tribunal members, and Suthep alleged that the
wife of Tribunal President (and concurrently Supreme Court
President) Panya Thanomrod had accepted a portion of this
money.

CONSTITUTIONAL ISSUES
-------------------
¶11. (C) When asked for his views on the draft constitution,
Suthep decried it as an unsatisfactory compromise product.
He joked that the draft was so poor that it was almost as if
the drafters themselves wanted the public to reject it. (In
a more serious tone, he suggested that General Sonthi likely
had an alternate constitution prepared in the event that he
needed one.)

¶12. (C) Suthep said the drafters should have abolished the
Senate rather than making it an appointed body. He also
expressed dissatisfaction with provisions that establish in
unclear terms a new method for election to the House from one
or more party lists. Suthep advocated abolishing the party
list system entirely, saying that party lists improperly
signal that those elected by virtue of their positions on the
lists are more elite than their colleagues who are elected on
a constituency basis. The party list MPs generally fail to
attend community events and disregard the electorate, Suthep
complained.

¶13. (C) The DP was currently assembling its formal reaction
to the draft constitution, Suthep said. Nevertheless,
despite his dissatisfaction, he told us if he had to choose
today, he would vote in favor of this constitution, simply to
make it more likely that elections would take place this
year, as planned. After elections, the legislature could
amend the constitution.

COMMENT
-----

¶14. (C) Suthep's discussion mirrors others we have been
hearing here. People are worried that the political
situation is precarious, and they do not trust any of their
political leaders. Despite claims to the contrary, there
appear to be serious differences between Surayud and Sonthi,
and it is widely believed Sonthi has at least considered
taking over from Surayud. (Even General Winai recently
confirmed to the Ambassador that Sonthi's interest in
pursuing elected politics had grown -- ref A.) In the longer
term, the CNS has to be worried about how to ensure their
continuing safety from reprisal from Thaksin. More
immediately, it has to figure up how to shore up the public's
dwindling confidence in the interim government and somehow
stumble through the current transition back to elected
government. The Ambassador has scheduled a dinner with
Sonthi on May 2 and will use the occasion to reinforce
strongly our interest in civilian governance during the
interim administration, elections in 2007, and fair treatment
of political parties and their constituents.

BOYCE


KP Page

Yesterday 07:45  -  Public
From the album: Timeline Photos
By Andrew MacGregor Marshall
Bhumibol, Sirikit and Vajiralongkorn at Bhumibol's 80th birthday ceremony, December 2007. This was a few months after Sirikit had withdrawn her support for Vajiralongkorn to succeed Bhumibol, and decided she wanted to rule as regent herself after the king's death
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151361625681154&set=a.419593026153.213934.627196153 


KP Page

23 Dec 2012  -  Public
Status Update
By Jittra Cotchadet
เมื่อคนงานป่วยโรคจากการทำงานเช่นปวดหลังกระดูกทับเส้นประสาท หัวหน้างานก็แนะนำว่าอาจจะโดนของ เพราะอาการคือจะปวดร้อนๆบริเวณที่อักเสบ
ส่วนคนงานที่อยู่โรงงานอะไหล่อีเลคโทรนิคมักจะป่วยด้วยโรคพิษสารตะกั่วขึ้นสมอง อาการคือพูดเพ้อเจ้อ ประสาทหลอน ก็อธิบายว่าผีเข้า
กว่าจะหาข้อเท็จจริงคนก็ออกงานไปรักษาหมอผีแล้วค่ะ
แค่ตัวอย่างยังมีอีกหลายโรคที่คนงานกว่าจะรู้ว่าเกิดจากอะไร หรืออาจจะรักษาช้าไป หรือรักษาแบบหลงทางจนเสียชีวิต!!

https://www.facebook.com/jittra.cotchadet/posts/10151198014697895
เมื่อคนงานป่วยโรคจาก... | Facebook »
Jittra Cotchadet wrote: เมื่อคนงานป่วยโรคจากการทำงานเช่นปวดหลังก... Join Facebook to connect with Jittra Cotchadet and others you may know.

KP Page

23 Dec 2012  -  Public
Status Update
By ผู้พันสู้ ตัวจริง
ทุกวันนี้ ผมเห็น คนแบ่งเป็น เร่งให้ลงมติวาระ 3 ไปเลย กับ ให้ทำประชามติก่อน ซึ่ง สำหรับตัวผมนั้น เชื่อมั่นใน พ.ต.ท.ทักษิณ มากที่สุด และโดยพื้นฐานส่วนตัว ผมไม่ชอบให้เสี่ยง โดยไม่จำเป็น

และแนวคิดผมไปแนวทางเดียวกับ พี่แม้วแก ว่ายังไง ก็ต้องเพลย์ เซฟ เพื่อ หยุดการ ปลุกระดมให้คนมาปะทะกัน รธน. จะแก้ไขไม่ได้ในคราวเดียวก็ ไม่เป็นไร แก้ทีละมาตรา ก็ได้ ถ้าประชามติไม่ผ่าน

ผมอยากจะดูเหมือนกันว่า คนไทย พร้อมจริง ๆ หรือยัง ที่จะเป็นประชาธิปไตย อย่าคุยปลอบใจตัวเอง

https://www.facebook.com/bemyself1234/posts/451894208204037
ทุกวันนี้ ผมเห็น... | Facebook »
ผู้พันสู้ ตัวจริง wrote: ทุกวันนี้ ผมเห็น คนแบ่งเป็น... Join Facebook to connect with ผู้พันสู้ ตัวจริง and others you may know.

KP Page

23 Dec 2012  -  Public
80 ปี รธน.ไทยภายใต้รัฐ(กึ่ง)ศาสนา # end

ร่วมแลกเปลี่ยนโดยสมศักดิ์ เจียมธีรสกุล ท่านจันทร์(สันติอโศก) ปิยบุตร แสงกนกกุล สุรพศ ทวีศักดิ์ "เสวนาในหัวข้อ 80 ปีรัฐธรรมนูญไทยภายใต้รัฐ(กึ่ง)ศาสนา"
ดำเนินรายการโดย พิเชฐ ยิ่งเกียรติคุณ — ที่ The Reading Room, Bangkok
เมื่อวันที่ 15 ธันวาคม 2555
ร่วมแลกเปลี่ยนโดยสมศักดิ์ เจียมธีรสกุล ท่านจันทร์(สันติอโศก) ปิยบุตร แสงกนกกุล สุรพศ ทวีศักดิ์ "เสวนาในหัวข้อ 80 ปีรัฐธรรมนูญไทยภายใต้รัฐ(กึ่ง)ศาสนา" ดำเนินร...


KP Page

23 Dec 2012  -  Public
Wikileaks: Thaksin’s Chamlong and palace problems
by thaipoliticalprisoners

https://thaipoliticalprisoners.wordpress.com/2012/12/23/wikileaks-thaksins-chamlong-and-palace-problems/
Wikileaks: Thaksin’s Chamlong and palace problems »
PPT finally has time to get back to Wikileaks cables and is trying to look through the 6,000 or so cables and see what we missed in our past searches of them. We are doing this in a systematic way,......

KP Page

23 Dec 2012  -  Public
From the album: Timeline Photos
By Thai Tummada

phoenix griffin

รูปที่มีทุกบ้าน ขนาดไม่มีบ้านจะอยู่ก็ยังต้องมี

ประเทศเหล่านี้ช่า่งเป็นประเทศมหาอำนาจที่ยิ่งใหญ่
เจริญก้าวไกลในด้านจิตวิญญาณยิ่งนัก

(ไม่ปัญญาจะพัฒนาด้านวัตถุ เรยต้องเอาเรื่องความสูงส่งทางจิตวิญญาณกลวงๆ
มาหลอกแดรกไปวันๆ)

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=456088527788628&set=a.441661022564712.104655.100001624553801


KP Page

23 Dec 2012  -  Public
From the album: Timeline Photos
By Voices of Siam
“ความโปร่งใส เปรียบเสมือนคนอยู่ในบ้าน...ถ้าเราเปิดบ้านให้โปร่งใส เปิดประตูหน้าตา ให้คนเห็นมากขึ้น และกลางคืนก็เปิดไฟให้คนเห็นได้ ความพยายามที่จะทำอะไรที่ไม่อยากให้คนเห็นก็จะลดน้อยลง"
- อานันท์ ปันยารชุน
13 ธันวาคม 2555
การกล่าวปิดงาน “โปร่งใสยามบ่าย: คนไทยไม่โกง”

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=500140623342090&set=a.311169832239171.73183.311158728906948 


หมายความว่าไงเนี่ย ...
ของจริง ของปลอม ของสร้างภาพ แล้วเอามาเผยแพร่เพื่ออะไร

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=151494281664518&set=a.129658853848061.29528.129648667182413 





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